Executive summary

1. They just keep getting larger: Investors expect Anthropic’s IPO to be the largest in history. Just three short months after SpaceX held the title.  
2. The market structure implications may not seem meaningful at first, but this is all part of the broader AI transformation in the U.S. economy and in U.S. markets.  
3. The more immediate question that may be on investors’ minds: Should they participate?  
4. Conventional wisdom says volatility may offer better prices in the wake of the IPO.  
5. Moreover, it’s not necessarily an open-and-shut case that Anthropic currently sells at an attractive valuation.
6. And just because it’s the topic du jour: I think the Fed should hold. But it seems as though a hike is in the air.

Anthropic is coming for the public markets. Or so the evidence suggests. Expected in October, the Anthropic IPO is rumored to be the largest in history. Take a look at the relative size in our “Chart of the month.”
 

The scale is daunting, but we’ve already had a dry run of this. When SpaceX went public on June 12, it was the largest IPO in history. (I guess in the AI era, those titles go fast.) And despite fears of trading stops, the day of was successful, with massive oversubscription and a 19% one-day pop, though it has since sold off to below its $135 IPO price.

What was most unusual about the SpaceX IPO, though, was the immediate impact it had on market structure. The 24-year-old company was added to marquee broad market indexes, including the Nasdaq 100 Index, in the days and weeks following its IPO. If insiders sell shares as lockups expire, we could see that weight grow meaningfully, allowing the company to have a greater influence on index price performance far earlier in its public life than other IPOs. (On that note: Meta and Alphabet were not added to the Nasdaq 100 until they had been public for seven and 16 months, respectively.)   

Should we expect the same with Anthropic? At only five-plus years old, Anthropic perhaps doesn’t have the retail name recognition of SpaceX, or its CEO Elon Musk’s brand appeal (depending on your perspective). It does, however, sit at the very heart of the AI trade while boasting an eye-popping revenue growth rate. As a result, many expect equal or greater hype to the SpaceX phenomenon, potentially leading to a similar oversubscription and day-of pop despite what many may very well consider an exorbitant valuation.

I think we could see Anthropic make its way into key indexes as well. Russell, the Nasdaq 100, and even the S&P Global changed their index rules to allow SpaceX in the mix (though the S&P 500^® Index did not give SpaceX the fast track). That leaves the door open at many of these indexes for Anthropic and OpenAI, which also has IPO plans.

Near term, Anthropic — and potentially OpenAI — will likely have smaller index weights, similar to those of SpaceX. But don’t let early marginal allocations distract from the long-term impact: These IPOs, alongside the broader push by Big Tech and corporate America into AI, are remaking the U.S. market and the U.S. economy.

You get a sense of it here, through the Bloomberg Artificial Intelligence Index. The U.S. makes up roughly 80% of this global index; at just under 6% each, South Korea and Taiwan are distant seconds. 

But even more interesting is the revenue share in the Bloomberg 500 Index related to AI. We’ve seen that climb from a quarterly $600 billion in Q1 2023 to more than $1 trillion each quarter for Q2 2026. And given expectations for future adoption, that may pale in comparison to where it stands in a few more years.

So. Is this good or bad? As an AI bull, I think it’s critical that the U.S. ride AI technology to what I expect will be improved productivity and greater innovation. But there’s no question that as the AI trade consumes an ever-greater proportion of the U.S. equity market, diversification becomes increasingly rare and increasingly valuable — particularly given the likelihood of AI setbacks. This is one of the reasons I think U.S. investors benefit from taking a global approach to their portfolios rather than focusing myopically on the U.S.

But perhaps my existential questions on the future of the U.S. market structure resonate less than the most common question that comes up when talk turns to the Anthropic IPO: Should investors participate?

I’ll admit, I’m agnostic. Conventional wisdom suggests there’s no rush with IPOs. Plenty of research points to above-average volatility for newly public companies in the months following their IPOs, which gives investors ample opportunity to buy in at better prices. That said, it’s worth noting that many of the biggest names in tech today had very strong months and years following their IPOs, making their original IPO prices look reasonable by comparison.

Really, it comes down to fundamentals and where prices sit relative to their future trajectory. My colleague, Empower Portfolio Strategist Tom Nun, did a back-of-the-envelope calculation here. And surprise, surprise: The growth would have to be pretty tremendous to make expected IPO values make sense.

Impossible? No. As demonstrated, Nvidia pulled it off. And this is the AI-growth era. Still, when we’re looking at the uncertainty that faces any given company amid this technological transformation, I favor a valuation discount. At least by this analysis, it’s not entirely clear that’s what Anthropic will offer out of the gate.

Make of that what you will.
 

Looking forward

So this whole Anthropic thing may go down in October. More immediately, we’ve got the Federal Reserve meeting, which has apparently a 90% chance of a hike. Sigh. I’ll be real: I’m sick of talking about yields. Hence the Anthropic topic. But here’s my two cents (worth a lot less after all this inflation): I don’t love the idea of a hike. I don’t think we’re looking at demand-driven inflation! However, I’m not on the Fed, or even on the Fed’s speed dial. So what I’d do is of no consequence. And increasingly, I feel like a hike is in the air, particularly as energy prices go from a supply shock to a state of semi-permanence with the Iran conflict continuing indefinitely. And, my word, but Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole address felt like forward guidance (IYKYK). So. Let’s hold our collective breath tomorrow.

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