Key takeaways

• U.S. holiday shoppers are expected to spend more than $253 billion online between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31.

• Over 17% of online sales could happen during Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.

• AI-powered chatbots are forecast to boost online traffic by 520% compared to last year.

Consumers are ready to tap into mobile payments and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) to drive holiday spending. The growing spread of crypto and AI add new innovation to the 2025 shopping season.

Holiday spending is showing steady momentum this year, even as shoppers weigh tariff uncertainty and inflation. Adobe Analytics forecasts a 5.3% rise in online sales for the 2025 holiday season from November 1 to December 31, slightly softer than 2024’s 8.7% gain, but still strong enough to keep checkout lines (virtual and otherwise) moving.¹

This season also marks the first full rollout of AI-enabled shopping, where chatbots and digital assistants are expected to handle a growing share of traffic. Compared to 2024, AI-powered chat tools could see a 520% jump in activity.²

OpenAI’s recent retail partnerships with Walmart, Etsy, and Shopify are changing the way people browse. Instead of clicking out to another site, shoppers can stay within a chat window to search, compare, and even check out — all without leaving the conversation.³

On the whole, online holiday spending could hit $253.4 billion, a 5.3% lift from last year.⁴ Factoring in in-store purchases as well, overall holiday spending is still expected to rise 4% year-over-year.⁵ Technology seems poised to play a big role in how shoppers browse and pay.

Cashing in on sales and discounts

The deal hunt is officially on: The five-day stretch that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday could drive close to a fifth (17.2%) of overall sales, skyrocketing past 6.3% seen last year.⁶

That follows a trend of consumers stocking up for special occasions when the price is right. Empower findings show that 56% buy gifts ahead of time to spread out the costs, especially Gen Z (67%).

Retailers like Amazon, Target, and Walmart kicked off the rush early this October, launching multiday sales that encouraged shoppers to compare and plan. More than half of Amazon’s Big Deal Days participants (56%) checked prices elsewhere before hitting “buy.”⁷

Price-tracking companies and credit-card issuers often have apps or browser extensions to speed up the comparison shopping, helping shoppers track down the best deal with retailers’ coupon codes and the possibility of earning rewards.⁸

Accelerating ways to pay

Cash is no longer king, at least during checkout. Empower research shows that one in five Americans use physical cash only a few times a year, while mobile payments have more than doubled from 2020 to 2024.⁹ This year, mobile is expected to drive over half ($142.7 billion) of all holiday spending.¹⁰

Recent Empower Personal Dashboard^TM data backs up the shift:

• Average credit card spending hit $817.70 in September, up from $746.10 the year before.

• Average BNPL spending climbed to $237.10 in September, up from $200.60 12 months earlier.

An uptick in overall spending could be driven by a combination of the prevalence of smartphones, the perks offered by credit card rewards programs, and the spread of new digital payment methods like peer-to-peer and cryptocurrencies. The ability to get extras that cash can’t cover may also be attractive: An Empower study of people who carry a credit-card balance found that 57% agree that using credit gives them financial incentives, like cash back, reward points, and access to experiences.

BNPL continues to grow as a go-to payment tool: An estimated $20.2 billion in holiday purchases will use the installment plans, a year-over-year increase of 11%.¹¹ Over a quarter of Americans (26%) say they’re more likely to buy when BNPL is offered, according to Empower findings.

Beyond the shopping spree, BNPL could also affect people’s financial futures: FICO will soon integrate BNPL usage into its credit-scoring model.

Read more: The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) boom in 2025: Statistics you need to know

Digital payments are evolving fast. Square — the point-of-sale system behind over 4 million small businesses — is now accepting Bitcoin as a payment method, with no processing fee through 2026. Starting in 2027, a 1% fee will apply, which is still below the 2.35% average swipe fee for traditional credit cards.^12,13,14 

As bigger retailers revisit self-checkout — or even no-checkout — options offered for in-store shopping, making use of digital payments could help people lower their transaction time.

Read more: Retailers revamp store checkouts — but at what cost?

Managing tech-savvy shopping

With around a third of Americans (32%) pulling back on discretionary spending this year, consumers seek value where they can during their holiday shopping. Understanding how best to use technology to save both time and money will leave people room to think about how shopping fits into their wider financial picture.