Taking Stock - September 16, 2026 - Fed rate decision

Taking Stock - September 16, 2026 - Fed rate decision

The Fed raised rates by a quarter percentage point in September, moving the target range to 3.75 to 4%. Here are the three things that I think matter from this decision. One, at the Fed, economics still trumps politics.

One hesitation voiced in recent months is that a new chair nominated by president Trump would be unwilling to raise rates, particularly before midterms. Today's decision should help alleviate that concern.

Two, the quarterly release of summary of economic projections suggested that we could still see another rate increase in 2026. In other words, the Fed may not be one and done, which is typical prior hiking cycles.

And three, Chairwashed gave us three explanations for the hike at this meeting after the hold in July. The data have since strengthened. The trend and inflation persistence has not abated, and geopolitics have continued to fuel price increases.

That jives with what the summary of economic projections revealed. The aggregate expectation from the committee was one of higher growth, higher inflation, lower unemployment. In other words, the Fed believes the AI fueled economy will continue to steam ahead.

So the big takeaway, the Fed is telling the market it is willing to roll up its sleeves and get to work on inflation. Results will be the ultimate tell.

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