This week was supposed to be about inflation, about bank earnings. But CoreWeave ended up in the spotlight, and it's not the kind of attention any company wants. Now, for those who haven't followed it, CoreWeave rents out AI computing power to big tech companies. It's also carrying roughly $52 billion in debt and leases. And yields for certain of its bonds have climbed to near 15%.

Now, tech has had its share of bad juju lately, but leverage worries tend to hit a bit harder. And frankly, it's one more reason why rates matter right now. The CPI came in on Wednesday at 3.7%, though gasoline did more than half of that work. Chair Warsh may not believe in forward guidance, but his committee sure seems to. And the tone from several of them sounds more like risk management than urgency.

So we'll see how this inflation print plays a role in all of this, but in general, an October hike looks a bit less likely. It seems like, at least in the eyes of some of the committee members, inflation is still a priority, just not an emergency. But all of that said, a pause in October doesn't necessarily mean lower rates, particularly when the drivers at the long end of the Treasury curve, like a rising term premium, look structural.

And through all of it, the earnings backdrop hasn't changed. It's still remarkably strong, with consensus near 30% year over year growth. The real question, though, is whether that's enough, given how much of this exceptional earnings environment may already be priced into the stock market. So here's the so what. The backdrop is favorable, but the risks for the market seem to be at the very heart of the AI trade, which quite frankly, is the very heart of the entire US equity market.