Key takeaways

• 67% of families hit the books — and the stores — to get a head start on school shopping in early July

• Spending on items for the school season is projected to reach $886 per household 

• Nearly 2 in 5 say school-related items are more expensive because of tariffs

Tariff-fueled pricing concerns prompted a record number of Americans to begin back-to-school shopping early this year — and even with tighter budgets, total spending for school related items is projected to rise.

From Christmas in July to Summerween, it’s nothing new for shoppers to try to get a head start on seasonal purchases. Back-to-school is the latest retail event to join the early-bird trend, as tariff prospects turn peak summer-break time into peak school-shopping season.

No sooner were backpacks swapped out for beach bags this summer than some families started scouring for bargains on school-related items: The National Retail Federation reports that about 2 in 3 (67%) Americans got an early start this year, already buying back-to-school essentials by the first week of July — up from 55% last year and the highest since 2018.¹

Why the rush? For more than half (51%) of families with school-age children, concerns about price hikes is the driver for getting a head start — and Empower findings show 39% say tariffs have made back-to-school supplies more expensive.² With prices and discounts shaping decision-making for nearly three quarters of shoppers, 82% say they specifically planned around July sales to shop for the upcoming school year.³ As a result, many may  buy supplies before schools have issued their lists of required items for the upcoming academic year.⁴

Read more: How could tariffs impact my wallet and my portfolio? Get a Sense Check

Sharpening pencils and prices

The potential for tariff-related price increases has been looming since early this year, with anticipation of increases building across industries from fresh flowers, specialty foods, and bridalwear to automobiles and travel.

Consumer prices edged up 2.7% in July year-over-year, a sign that companies are beginning to pass through some import duties. The picture for school-related items remains somewhat mixed: Costs for educational books and supplies and college textbooks were up 0.1% and 0.4% respectively, month over month.⁵ Apparel was up 0.1% month over month, but down 0.2% year over year, while computers and other tech items were down 1.2% month over month and 1.8% year over year.⁶

Read more: Tariffs hit the beach: Americans brace for $10K+ vacation budgets in 2025

High marks on budgets

Though shoppers are tightening budgets and proceeding with caution, more than a third (35%) report they’re spending more this year than last year.⁷ Total school-related spending is projected to reach $39.4 billion for K-12 and $88.8 billion for college in 2025, up from $38.8 and $86.6 respectively in 2024.⁸ Tariffs on imports may be driving price bumps in some categories, with households expected to spend an estimated $886 for items including electronics ($311), clothing and accessories ($260), shoes ($172), and notebooks, paper, and pens ($143).  

Read more: Smartphone prices have dropped as tariffs enter the scene

Making the grade

With economic concerns on their minds, not everyone is rushing to open their wallets before they need to — or all at one time. For 1 in 3 (34%), spreading out costs over time is the rationale for starting early, and 4 in 10 are looking for other savvy ways to keep budgets in check: Among these, 46% plan to do the majority of their shopping at mass merchant retailers and 75% may switch to more affordable brands.⁹

Read more: Back-to-school shopping expected to reach almost $900 per household in 2025