Key Takeaways:

• Many everyday prices at the largest retail chains have held steadier than expected, even as tariffs raise cost pressure.
• Shoppers are concentrating their spending at value-focused retailers, where private labels, promotions, and delivery perks help make budgets go further.
• Core inflation hovered near 3% through mid-year, and the full impact of tariffs have not yet hit the supply chain, reducing the risk of sudden price jumps for some household budgets.

Despite new tariffs, major retailers have largely kept price increases at bay by absorbing costs and shifting their supply strategies.

Tariffs were expected to push prices up sharply. And while the cost of raw materials and some consumer products have increased, others have not. Grocery staples, basic apparel, and common household goods have held relatively stable across several national chains.¹ Walmart’s latest quarterly results showed a sales increase of 4.6%, and the company says only 1 in 10 imported items saw price increases.^2,3 

Another potential reason for prices staying flat could be inflation cooling. Core inflation hovered around 3% through the middle of 2025, a slower pace than some forecasts anticipated.⁴ There is also the theory that tariff effects tend to impact supply chains more gradually, which could have a role to play in near-term price pressures being more muted than expected.⁵

As consumers braced for the impact of tariffs, major retailers have found levers to pull in order to keep prices lower than expected. Their size, economy of scale, and long-term buying strategies have given bigger stores an advantage in a somewhat unpredictable economy.

How prices have stayed consistent

It’s not just Walmart that has found a way to navigate changing economic tides. Amazon reported an 11% increase in online sales after tightening its delivery network, a move the company linked to efficiency gains that supported growth.⁶ TJX stores (owners of TJMaxx, Marshall’s, HomeGoods, and others) continue to draw shoppers as the company’s strategy of buying excess inventory has fueled stronger same-store sales.⁷ Target leaned on supplier negotiations and store brands to help keep prices competitive.⁸

Retailers may also be benefitting from lower “effective” tariff rates than early announcements implied.⁹ Some may be selling pre-tariff inventory before having to adjust prices, which could play a role in why households haven’t seen major price increases quite yet.¹⁰

Retailers also tightened cost controls by cutting overhead, pressing suppliers, and streamlining logistics, which may have helped keep everyday prices steadier.¹¹ Other add-on effects that could impact pricing are recent declines in energy and freight costs, which has given retailers more room to manage prices.¹²

Read more: College students are the new priority consumer

Where value shows up

Value is currently a main driver for some families’ shopping choices. They’re steering more of their budgets to retailers that can deliver more predictable pricing and promotions. Walmart reported an increase in shoppers across income tiers, including those earning six figures, as some customers look for ways to cut back on the number of shopping trips they make per week. Kohl’s has made a similar pitch to consumers, promoting its ability to deliver value for customers who are seeking to maximize their spending dollar.¹³ Target’s digital sales increased by 4.3%, fueled by interest in their own brands that are often priced below their national counterparts.¹⁴ TJX’s model, largely based on selling discounted items, also continues to resonate with some consumers looking for the maximum impact per spending dollar.¹⁵

There may be a pattern among value-driven shoppers: Households are still spending, but stores that can help keep budgets balanced may get top billing.

How retailers are cushioning tariffs

Inventory timing has helped influence retailers’ ability to keep higher prices from hitting shelves.¹⁶ Several chains placed orders ahead of tariff deadlines, stocking up before tariffs went into effect and began to impact supply chain costs.¹⁷ Department store chain Kohl’s is ordering less overall merchandise this year and is occasionally bringing shipments in earlier than usual.¹⁸ Walmart has said it will extend its approach through the latter half of the year. These steps are meant to keep prices from rising too fast due to tariffs.

Sourcing shifts have helped as well. Some categories, like apparel, moved away from higher-tariff countries to lower-cost manufacturing hubs, while domestic suppliers have taken more of a role as well.¹⁹ Kohl’s has leaned heavily on this strategy, diversifying its factory network to avoid over-reliance on any specific country and adjusting orders in real time to reflect tariff-driven shifts in demand.²⁰

Upgrades to logistics have also helped lower fulfillment costs — factors that have helped reduce the need for immediate price changes at checkout.²¹

Read more: How could tariffs impact my wallet and my portfolio? Get a Sense Check

Tariff trade-offs: What consumers should consider

Margin pressure is real for retailers. Even stores that have found ways to keep prices down may end up passing through costs to consumers, particularly as some items turn over or run low on stock.²² Executives at Gap and Best Buy have said they are managing these pressures by sticking to longer-term sourcing adjustments and avoiding reactive changes for every tariff ruling.²³ About a third of companies have raised prices on some items already, according to recent reports.²⁴ This could indicate that households may see price increases on some items at a time, rather than a broad price surge.²⁵

There are some practical moves families might make to help keep spending on track:

• Plan seasonal purchases earlier: Shopping earlier for the holidays, or for must-make purchases, could help secure lower prices.
• Consider the cost-savings of private-label shopping: Owned brands at major chains often undercut national labels while meeting similar specs. This partly propels the “dupes” market, where retailers offer their take on expensive items.
• Compare buying options, not just stores: Online-only discounts, curbside pickup incentives, and membership perks could help find additional savings in the shopping cart.
• Stagger non-essential purchases: Spreading out discretionary expenses may help make monthly expenses more predictable, particularly if one category sees a temporary bump in prices. 

What households should watch

Families may not see across-the-board price jumps, but certain items could still get more expensive as older inventory runs out and new shipments arrive at higher costs. Watching categories like clothing, small appliances, and electronics may be worthwhile, as they are more susceptible to price increases if currently paused tariffs come into effect.

For now, the results have been more predictable day-to-day costs in a year when tariffs may have otherwise had a stronger impact. Keeping inflation contained has helped people budget with more predictability, and value-focused shopping has helped keep costs in control. Whether that balance holds for now depends on how long retailers can absorb higher costs without having to pass them along.

For now, it’s still mostly good news for consumers.