This question may become a defining one of 2024. Not long ago, the answer to who (or what’s) in charge of short-term market performance was a simple one: inflation. Those days are gone.

Last week’s losses weren’t really caused by a sudden shift in fundamentals or a dramatic change the direction of the economy, but instead by a subtle shift in how markets interpret these fundamentals. Let's explore.

2023 wrapped up with an “everything rally." Meanwhile, the consensus has shifted from rates higher for longer to rate cuts in 2024, with inflation continuing to slow toward the Fed’s long-term target.

In the spirit of New Year’s reflection, let's look back at how last year began for markets and the economy, and compare to where we sit today at the start of 2024.

Encouraging data points in the fight against inflation during November prompted a flurry of investor confidence that interest rates have peaked. Capital markets rallied to end a three-month losing streak. capital markets rallied to end a three-month losing streak.

Economic data has been sending mixed messages ever since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates a year and a half ago. Case in point: Gross domestic product, the primary measure of whether the economy is growing or contracting.

When a company releases its quarterly earnings, management is scored on how well actual performance lived up to published analyst expectations. Another layer to consider is its “whisper numbers.”

Following the most recent consumer price index report, stocks rallied pretty much across the board. Here's a list of macroeconomic factors that may cause reason for gratitude, plus what to watch out for this week.

It’s too soon for declaring victory over inflation. That's according to Fed speakers, who said as much at various events across the country. When the message comes out sounding so specific and so coordinated, it probably is.

While there is still some ambiguity built in, markets and policymakers still seem to have a very different view of the future direction of the federal funds rate, upon which mortgages, credit card rates and bank profitability rely for direction.