I think the idea is that we can't necessarily say that the situation we're in today is a game changer. Yet. Well, the Fed did what most people expected today, but there was so much talk going into this meeting about stagflation and whether people should be worried. Marta, now that it's behind us, do you think some of that fear maybe got a little bit of ahead of itself?

I do think it got ahead of itself, Vanessa, and I think it remains ahead of itself. That doesn't mean market reaction has been overly severe. And I think we can actually make a good case for how markets have behaved. For example, U.S. equities have been off during the course of this conflict, but they haven't sold off quite to the same degree as we've seen outside the U.S.,

where there is more exposure to Middle Eastern oil. We've seen Treasuries come off, but that relates to some of the inflation fears that are brewing out there and of course, a strong U.S. dollar. But to your point, the commentary and the fears have been pretty strong, both on the expectation for what inflation could look like and on the expectation for a hit to growth. Now, of course, if we were to see a severe scenario, both of those things could develop.

But a lot of the research that's out there, in fact, research by the Federal Reserve says that an oil price spike doesn't necessarily have a profound impact on core inflation for the long term and doesn't have the same impact that some expect on the growth side of things. So, of course, we are layering another risk on top of risks that are already out there. The inflation rate has not yet returned to the Fed's 2% target, but I think at the moment the concerns that we're seeing are a bit overdone. And when you listen to what Jerome Powell said today, does this strike you as a real stagflation warning or more as a reminder that inflation is still sticky and the path forward just might take a bit longer?

Powell brought up that question of stagflation directly, and he actually reminded folks at his presser that the term stagflation developed during the 1970s, when we were in a very different inflation situation and a very different unemployment situation, which he suggested is not what we're experiencing today. In fact, I think Powell had a very balanced tone. He talked about the uncertainty of the environment that we're in. And when we look at the actual projections that the Fed put out there, they did anticipate a bit of a spike to inflation, but one that works its way through.

They did not make any adjustments to labor, didn't expect any material weakening there from what they've already described. They expected growth to tick up a bit. And they also expected still another cut over the course of 2026. So overall, I think the idea is that we can't necessarily say that the situation we're in today is a game changer yet.

All right. And then of course there's the leadership piece. Marta, we got to talk about this. There's so much talk around whether Jerome Powell leaves in April with Kevin Warsh still pending.

So what should people really be focused on there now? Some quick answers here. Powell addressed these questions directly. He said there's precedent for the Fed chair remaining chair if the the new, incoming chair is not yet confirmed.

So he suggested that is what he would do. He also said he would stay in place on the committee for as long as the investigation was pending. And beyond that, he didn't provide any clarity. So at least some answers in the near term.

Marta, really helpful perspective, as always. I think the key takeaway here is yes, there are still real risks the Fed is navigating, but it's not a moment to get carried away by the headlines. Marta, great to see you as always.