Taking Stock - February 26th, 2026
Taking Stock - February 26th, 2026
Taking Stock - February 26th, 2026
It tapped into the Fear of investors and non investors alike that the age of robots has begun.
It has been a volatile stretch for markets after the Supreme Court decision on tariffs. President Trump moved quickly to reintroduce them. At the very same time, Wall Street was rocked by a pretty bleak memo about AI and the labor market. Then NVIDIA reported stellar earnings yesterday. Maura, I want to start with AI. NVIDIA results suggest that the AI infrastructure buildout is still moving full speed ahead. So I'm curious, how are you thinking about the AI space right now.
Well, it's interesting. NVIDIA earnings confirmed what we had already learned when hyperscalers announced their expected capital expenditures for 2026. And that this AI infrastructure build continues to accelerate. But we have this new AI theme in 2026.
In addition to the AI infrastructure, investors are now worried about industry disruption in areas like software, wealth management, financial intermediaries. Some of these areas are very far flung and they're coming under pressure. The fear is that these businesses will get squeezed by competition, as AI model providers add additional capabilities beyond these chatbots that have become so ubiquitous. Some are arguing that these businesses are headed to 0.
It's interesting, just as last summer and fall, we were only focused on the upside of AI. Now, investors are only focused on the downside. And I'd argue the truth is somewhere in between.
Yeah, it's amazing how quickly things can shift. And Martin, I think that's a perfect setup for the Citron research memo. That memo painted a picture of what the world could look like if I essentially steals all the jobs. And as we've talked about this week, Martin, that memo was credited with creating a lot more volatility than the tariff news.
That's right. It tapped into the Fear of investors and non investors alike that the age of robots has begun. I actually really liked this memo. I thought it was an interesting attempt to think through the ripple effects of AI across industries, across the economy, across asset classes.
But it's important to remember that it's just one potential scenario in an uncertain future. Here's another scenario which may have higher probability companies are able to incorporate AI. It improves productivity, and while it causes disruption, it isn't able to replace whole swaths of the White collar workforce. And I think as we think through the full spectrum of possibilities, not just the downside, we start to see that the market, or at least certain segments of the market is becoming myopically focused on the negative outcomes, which may mean that there are certain stocks that are just becoming unfairly punished.
Yeah, that makes sense. Let's talk tariffs. Now the Supreme court struck down tariffs based on IPR. And President Trump has since put in place a 10% global tariff. So where do you see things headed from here.
Well, some people thought that the Supreme Court decision could be an off ramp for tariffs, but I disagree. Over the past year, I've argued that President Trump is ideologically committed to tariffs. And my expectation is that he's going to find a way to keep tariffs in place through whatever legal grounds are available. EPA was convenient because he could apply tariffs liberally, spontaneously.
It didn't seem as though there was any upper bound. And now the laws that he has available to him come with constraints, which means that we might not be looking at as wide a range of possibilities, but things are still uncertain. We have tariff rebates from the EPA tariffs. We have details still to emerge around what the tariff regime looks like, how much and on what products and countries, and whether the trade deals that were already agreed upon can stick.
Now that President Trump's hands are tied a bit more.
So uncertainty is still the story on tariffs. But the real news in your mind is everything that's happening right now with AI. Marta Norton, thanks so much.
Thanks, Venise.
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