Key takeaways

• U.S. travel spending is projected to reach $1.35 trillion in 2025, up 3.9% year-over-year
• Airfare and lodging prices have increased below the rate of inflation year-to-date
• Domestic trips may total 2.4 billion this year, reflecting steady travel demand
• Rail ridership is on the rise, with Amtrak carrying 34.5 million passengers from September 2025 to 2026.

U.S. travel spending is set to hit $1.35 trillion in 2025 as travelers embrace flexibility, shorter trips, and steady prices across flights, hotels, and cruises for a stable winter season.

This winter is shaping up to be a busy one for travelers. Total U.S. travel spending is expected to rise about 3.9% in 2025, with the average household spending $980 on travel in October, according to Empower Personal Dashboard™ data. It appears that some budgets may be steady enough for a winter getaway.¹ Prices for airfare and lodging are rising more slowly than overall inflation.²

Major airlines released their holiday schedules early this year, seeking to manage projected demand, and flight bookings began climbing in mid-October.³ This may be a sign that travelers are planning ahead and locking in prices earlier, rather than waiting for last-minute deals.⁴

The winter travel season may be shaping up to be stable and deliberate, which may benefit some travelers looking to lock rates in early. Travelers seem to favor flexible timing and shorter stays in some cases, instead of longer, once-a-year vacations. The industry may be looking toward these trends, offering more consistent prices rather than pop-up sales for last-minute travelers.

Winter 2025 travel outlook

Travel spending continues to grow, though at a slower pace than last year. Forecasts indicate there may be high travel levels heading into this year’s holiday period, with total domestic trips projected to reach about 2.4 billion by the end of the year.⁵ Overall U.S. travel spending is expected to reach about $1.35 trillion in 2025, and this season will help determine if these forecasts hold up.⁶

An increasing number of households chose shorter trips spread across the year in 2025, rather than one longer vacation.⁷ That growth may reflect how people are reshaping when and how they travel, and the shift helps distribute demand more evenly across the calendar. Whether or not this trend will spill over into holiday travel has yet to be seen.

The state of holiday and winter flying

Roughly 50 million passengers are expected to fly during the year-end holidays.⁸ Travelers’ schedules have helped redraw when and where airlines add or remove flights.⁹ Airlines are leaning on data to anticipate when travelers will actually fly. The result may be a steadier season with fewer price spikes and more midweek traffic.

Even in an inflationary environment, airfare has fluctuated modestly through 2025, with some routes rising with others easing in price through mid-year.¹⁰ Airlines are also spacing out sales and keeping capacity tight.¹¹ One reason could be that major carriers are contending with late-cycle bookings — a trend the industry also experienced during the fall travel season. That could turn the 2025 holiday period into a challenging one for “demand visibility,” which helps providers gauge how many flyers they might accommodate.¹² Travelers who buy early could still find moderately priced fares, while those waiting for flash discounts might see fewer deals than seasons’ past.

Read more: The changing landscape of travel rewards

Drivers stay the course

Americans are expected to keep highways busy this winter. Motor vehicle travel reached 278.3 billion miles by September this year, roughly 1% higher than a year ago.¹³ Year-over-year growth climbed to 3.3 trillion miles, reflecting a consistent level of household demand across the country. It is likely that winter holiday travel will send that number higher through the rest of the year and into early 2026.¹⁴

Fuel prices have stayed relatively steady: Regular gasoline averaged $3.27 a gallon in October 2025, nearly identical to last year.¹⁵ This mix of steady costs and mobility may influence the role driving plays in peoples’ winter travel plans, particularly for families weighing affordability versus modes of travel.

Read more: Road trips race ahead in popularity as people stretch travel dollars

Winter travel on the rails

Train travel is expected to add steady passenger growth through the rest of 2025. Amtrak carried 34.5 million passengers from September 2024 to 2025.¹⁶ Ridership increased across all service lines, resulting in $2.7 billion in ticket revenue alongside an 8% gain on the Northeast Corridor, where on-time performance and capacity have also improved.¹⁷

For travelers, this may translate into a smoother experience: More on-time arrivals, fewer cancellations, and more consistent comfort through peak season. Although rail travel may not capture the same volume as road or air, its steadiness and slower pace may offer a unique alternative to gridlock and airports.

Hotels stay steady into winter travel season

Hotel chains have added incentives to their winter calendars, including loyalty bonuses, bundled packages, and business-leisure crossovers that may appeal to those who are on “workation” while traveling. Occupancy has hovered around 63% for the year, which may increase slightly according to forecasts.¹⁸

Average hotel rates have hovered near $160 per night nationwide through 2025, nearly flat since 1% from last year.¹⁹ This could signal steady demand and competitive pricing to continue into winter.

Airbnb reported stronger-than-expected fall bookings, driven by continued U.S. travel demand heading into winter.²⁰ Meanwhile, Hilton and Marriott both report that their luxury properties are outperforming the broader hotel market.²¹ Overall growth has stabilized, but spending patterns show travelers are channeling their budgets toward higher-end stays. Guest spending is projected to hit a record $777 billion in 2025, even as average daily rates hold steady.²²

Winter travel destinations expand and diversify

Travelers are spreading out. Some are chasing snow and solitude, while others are chasing warmer weather. Mountain towns, small coastal cities, and wellness retreats all share a spot on the map as people look for experiences that balance novelty, cost, and comfort.

Fall and winter 2025 travel trends indicate a distinct shift toward experiential excursions. Vacation rental searches for September through November trips rose 28% year over year.²³ Popular searches include seasonal experiences, such as snow sports, hot springs, and winter wellness escapes.²⁴

Those who want a reprieve from cold climes may be flocking to Florida, as it remains one of the country’s most popular destinations this winter.²⁵ More broadly, smaller towns and mountain regions are drawing steady demand as travelers look for wellness, proximity, and value.

Cruise season goes long distance

Cruise lines are keeping ships on the seas well into spring. More winter cruises are available into March 2026, catering to travelers who prefer slower travel and built-in value during less popular travel windows.²⁶ The extended calendar blurs the old peak seasons, turning winter into another window for exploration.

Passenger totals are projected to rise roughly 6.5% in 2025 due to the increased number of cruises available, offering more off-peak sailings and pricing flexibility for travelers.²⁷ Several extended sailings are priced below comparable peak-season routes on a per-day basis, drawing travelers who view them as better value for longer vacations. Flexible scheduling, especially among retirees and remote workers, is keeping some ships full even past the holidays.

Read more: Forget the timeshare, people opt for a lifeshare: The economics of endless travel

Going out of office

Travelers enter the season with reason for cautious optimism. Many are booking earlier, hotels remain competitively priced, and cruise lines are keeping ships active into early spring.

The rhythm of winter travel appears steady and deliberate this year, shaped by households looking to manage costs without giving up experiences. With competitive pricing for flights and hotels, and a broader array of cruise itineraries available for longer, budgets may gain a bit of value for those who hit the road this season.