Okay. So payrolls were remarkably weaker than expected.

We are starting August off with two big headlines. The jobs report missed expectations coming in weaker than expected. At the same time, a new round of tariffs just kicked in. Marta, with both of these headlines breaking together, I'm curious, what's your first read on the jobs numbers?

Okay. So payrolls were remarkably weaker than expected. The tick up in unemployment rate to four point two percent was as anticipated. Now listen.

For the past several reports, we have seen limited breadth across sectors in terms of different types of sectors adding to payrolls, but we've had two sources of strength, health care and government. Health care continued to be strong in this report. Government, though, was a lot weaker. Of course, losses at the federal level due to the Doge effect, but also a lot of weaker hiring at the state and local level.

And that really pulled out a key measure of support for the labor market.

And the timing of this report couldn't be more interesting. For the first time in years, we saw two high level Fed officials dissent this week, governor Waller and governor Bowman, saying that the labor market may be weaker than it looks. How seriously do you think we should be taking these concerns?

Well, this was a report that would support the narrative of a weaker labor market. We also saw downward revisions to prior months, and that likely captures attention. We'll have another report before the September Fed meeting where the Fed decides to hold or cut rates again. But with this snapshot, markets are back to pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts in September.

And, of course, all of this happening as political pressure turns up. President Trump out today hammering share Powell again, calling for immediate rate cuts, even floating the idea that the Fed board should override him if he doesn't act soon. How much sway does this kind of pressure really have?

Well, a lot of that commentary is likely noise. However, you are starting to see commentary from supposedly nonpolitical sources who are using Trump's comments as a springboard to hammer Powell on policy mistakes. It doesn't completely erode Fed independence. The structure is well understood. There is a committee. There are staggered appointments. But it does keep that question of independence front of mind.

And we haven't even touched on the big trade story this morning, the global tariff blitz that just landed, those steep new tariffs on dozens of trading partners. So what do investors or shoppers for that matter need to brace for in the weeks ahead?

The market reaction to the announcement of tariffs today hasn't been that severe, especially when you compare it to the Liberation Day market reaction. I think that really suggests that there is some sort of anticipation or expectation for the announcement that we saw, and tariffs have been in place for several months at this point. Our view is that there's a long tail to this. So, of course, companies front run inventory. They wait for certainty on what those tariff rates look like before they pass along prices to customers or receive higher prices from their suppliers. So at this point, it's our anticipation that we will see a bigger tariff impact, at least as it pertains to corporate earnings in the back half of the year.

Marta, thanks as always for helping us make sense of a busy day of headlines. It's an awful lot to digest, but your perspective really helps us understand all these moving parts. We're gonna keep monitoring these developments for you, and we'll be back with updates and, of course, MARTA's analysis. Until then, have a great weekend.