We do have some details around unemployment claims, and when we look at those unemployment claims, there's not significant weakening, and I think that is another source of encouragement.

Well, here we are in the middle of a government shutdown, the only number we have this month is today's CPI. The Trump administration actually brought the inflation team back to get this report out since it's needed to calculate next year's Social Security payments. So no jobs report, no retail data, just this one measure of inflation. Marta, how are you reading these numbers? What's the big takeaway for you?

I think overall, the market is going to like this report. What we saw was both headline, that's overall inflation, and core inflation, which is inflation stripping out energy and food. Both of those numbers came in below expectations and both at three percent. And I think that below expectations report that we saw is something that could give the Fed leeway to cut rates next week.

An encouraging report for sure, but when you dig into the details, what jumps out at you?

Okay, a few things here. So core services is something I've been watching closely. It's something where we've seen a lot more stickiness than I think people anticipated over the course of the summer. But on a contribution basis, we actually saw core services contribute a bit less to this report.

Core goods is what everyone is watching for that tariff pulse. And core goods did contribute a bit more, but maybe not to the degree people feared. And so potentially another area of encouragement. On the energy front, we actually did see energy as a contributor to inflation this month, gasoline in particular.

But energy is not a place where people look for signals on longer term inflation trends simply because it is so volatile.

We know the Fed has two mandates, balancing inflation and labor, but with no new jobs data, they're working with only half the picture. So how do you think that plays into next week's rate decision?

You're right. There's no official government data that the Fed can look at, at least, you know, it's official jobs report. But what we do have is some details around unemployment claims. And when we look at those unemployment claims, there's not significant weakening. And I think that is another source of encouragement for the Fed. I think what we're typically looking at when we're looking at the labor market, just those broad trends, is a labor market that has cooled meaningfully from the excessively tight levels that we saw a few years ago, but is still in line with historical trends. So the Fed, I believe, is going to be really hinging off that pace of normalization, but not overly concerned about where the labor market looks from today's snapshot.

Thank you, Marta. Great insights.

As always, even with that limited data, find a way to help us connect the dots.

Love it. We're going to be back next week with Marta's take on the Fed's interest rate decision. Thanks for being with us today. Have a great weekend, and we'll see you again soon.