Investing Insights

Simple and complex thought

Pioneering behavioral economists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman developed a theory focused on decision-making when facing uncertainty. This research may assist us with providing better outcomes for ourselves and the clients we serve.

  • False Labor

    While the economy has so far avoided a recession due to an exceptionally strong labor market, history suggests that the economy usually side-steps recession until shortly after the Fed stops raising rates and that employment tends to weaken several months into a post-tightening recession.
     

  • It's getting lonely in here

    Equity markets outperformed strong seasonals to erase 3Q23 losses, but could challenges to the U.S. economy affect market performance in 2024? 

     

  • 2023 Year-In-Review

    A recap of key market events in 2023 — and a glimpse of what lies ahead in 2024. 
     

  • Pause for effect

    The Federal Reserve has just ended its tightening cycle, raising short-term interest rates more than 5%. Yet, the economy has not fallen into a recession. Did the Fed actually achieve the Goldilocks soft-landing scenario or, is the economy still prone to a recession in 2024? 
     

  • Maintenance Required

    Is it time to refresh your fixed-income allocation? 
     

  • Greener Pastures

    What the Quits Rate is telling us about the state of the U.S. labor market. 
     

  • Investing like Magellan

    Learn why global diversification is so important and why now may be an ideal time to invest internationally. 
     

  • Tapping Out

    U.S. consumers have spent-down their COVID savings and are now changing the way that they spend. 
     

  • Sticky situation

    So far, home prices have defied predictions of a collapse. Why, and can it last? 
     

  • Are our brains working against us?

    Analyzes the emotional and cognitive biases we have that lead to poor investment decisions. 
     

  • 2022 Year-In-Review

    Investment markets tend to be anticipatory in nature: They often see weakness before it arrives and strength before it returns. If so, 2022 might well be remembered as the year we paid for a substantial portion of whatever weakness awaits us in 2023. 
     

  • Splitting the tab

    The U.S. may be headed for recession. The good news: We may have already paid part of the bill. 
     

  • Be patient, be brave

    By properly diversifying and practicing patience and courage, investors can weather any market storm. 
     

  • Double-barreled price pressure

    COVID-19 and its aftermath created an unusually fertile environment for inflation to thrive. 
     

  • A war of his choosing

    Vladimir Putin’s Russia invades Ukraine. What are the potential market and economic impacts? 
     

  • Vital Signs - A time for your annual check-up Mr. Market

    Capital markets — and the economy they represent — spent much of 2021 in reasonably good health. But will that remain true this year? 
     

  • Soul Searching

    Empower Investments manager research teams offer some insights on evaluating sudden changes to investment teams and the firms that employ them. 
     

  • Help (Desperately!) Wanted

    An in-depth look at the present state and future prospects for the U.S. employment market. 
     

  • Tactical Mistakes

    GWI examines how well professional asset managers do at timing the market.